Estimates and expectations

Figuring where we'll be, and when we'll be there

tl;dr: 43.6mi/day, starting from Chicago on July 17

I've been asked a few times now when we will be passing through town. Because this is our first "long" tour, I don't have a great formula for figuring that out. For our randonneuring rides I usually assume a 10mph average as a very conservative estimate that allows for leisurely stops for photos, snacks, and meals (and the occasional mechanical issue). That makes sense for a ride where you are on-the-clock for the whole thing and are not carrying much on the bike. But on this tour, it is not conservative enough to account for the additional weight we'll be carrying and the extended period we'll be carrying it. So, we came up with this very-hand-wavy formula:

50 to 60 miles a day for 5 or 6 days a week.

At our slowest we'd go 50mi/day for 5 days a week, our fastest will be 60mi/day for 6 days a week:

 50mi/d * 5d/wk * 1wk/7d = 35.7m/d
 60mi/d * 6d/wk * 1wk/7d = 51.4m/d
-----------------------------------
 Average = (35.7+51.4)/2 = 43.6m/d

Revised start date: July 17, 2025

So, about where would we be along the route if we started as originally planned on May 17?

July 17 is 68 days after our planned departure date.

68d * 43.6mi/day = 2,964mi

If you have a look at the complete route, you can see that puts us somewhere in Wisconsin.

Revised route

The Amtrak map shows the major train routes and while there are ways to get to Wisconsin from the Bay Area, they require a transfer in Chicago, IL. So, we decided to take the train to Chicago and ride from there up to our previously planned route in Oshkosh, WI. From there we will continue east to the finish.

This approach will allow us to finish at about the same time that we would have if we didn't need to postpone the start of the ride, allowing us to meet up with family in New York more-or-less as planned and maybe(?) avoiding some of the hottest summer weather.